Future Development

Sea surface temperature, coupled high resolution E3SM version 1.0 simulation

E3SM has a unique capability for variable resolution modeling using unstructured grids in all its Earth system component models. During Phase I, a regional refined model (RRM) with a high-resolution region over the U.S. has been used for evaluating physics parameterizations for high resolution modeling. This RRM strategy has proven useful for understanding atmosphere model behavior at high resolution, bypassing the need to run more computationally expensive global high-resolution simulations for parameterization testing and calibration. RRM is an important E3SM strategy for large ensemble high resolution simulations and development towards global convection permitting simulations in v3/v4 using a nonhydrostatic model in Phase III. As a result, our goal in Phase II is to begin to move the “proof of concept” RRM to more routine use. This will allow us to gain expertise in the use of scale-aware parameterizations and address science questions that benefit from higher resolution modeling.

E3SM v2 will feature a new capability in coupling human systems with natural processes to understand how different energy futures may affect biogeochemistry and water availability, which may subsequently constrain energy production and use. Our v2 biogeochemistry experiments will make use of the new coupled modeling and RRM capabilities to address the v2 science questions and to build the foundation for important two-way coupling of natural and managed and man-made systems to be developed to more adequately address DOE’s mission in v3/v4.

The RRM capability will also be used for the cryosphere experiments, with increased resolution for representing ocean-ice interactions in the Antarctic ice shelf. Building on the coupled ocean-ice model capability developed in v1, our v2 science question investigates more broadly the impacts of atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice on melting of the AIS, which will set the stage for more systematic analysis of uncertainty in modeling the contribution of the AIS to sea level rise in v3/v4.

High-Resolution Model of North America Leverages Multiple DOE BER Investments

With a regional focus over North America, the E3SM V2 science campaigns will leverage DOE BER investments across several programs such as the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) and Atmospheric System Research (ASR) programs with long term observations of atmospheric processes and surface fluxes in the Southern Great Plains and Alaska, the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment in the Arctic (NGEE-Arctic) supported by the terrestrial ecosystem science program with measurements and modeling of terrestrial ecosystem processes in the pan-Arctic region of North America, and the Regional and Global Modeling and Analysis (RGMA) program that has been supporting the development of metrics and diagnostics to advance understanding of the water cycle and biogeochemical processes and extreme events. E3SM will benefit from the BER programs’ contributions in measurements to constrain modeling, as well as in model development, evaluation, and analysis and diagnostics tools.

Our ability to fully address the v2 science questions will be limited by the model resolution achievable with the computing resources. An important goal of v2 is to provide a bridge for more substantive development and experiments in v3/v4 through understanding and quantification of model sensitivity to resolution and parameterizations and experience with coupling natural and human systems at regional and global scales beginning with v2.

V2 and V3/4 Science Questions and planned simulation campaigns can be found in

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